Houston, we are a go: FOTM readies for 3rd year

October 27, 2012


As of 5:25 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 27 by meteorologist Dave Miller:

Final weather update: No real changes to what I wrote before except to say the official forecast has come back to what I was thinking originally in that it really just looks like there will only be light spotty showers and primarily in the afternoon. Heck you may see a bit of sun through the clouds in the morning. Temps still in the mid to upper 40s at the start and getting up to the mid 50s by afternoon. Winds 10-15 mph out of the N-NE. Looks like some great trail running weather! Hope all enjoy and stay safe! Have a good one!

 Earlier (posted Friday night)

Weather update: There’s no real change at the moment to what I wrote last evening except the official forecast has more showers/rain during the day than last evening’s. Temperatures still look like they’ll start in the mid 40s and only get up to the low 50s by afternoon. Winds generally out of the north 10-15 mph. Rainfall amounts 1/4 to 1/2 half inch. That said, two of the models I’m looking at as I write this aren’t forecasting nearly that much rain and the other may be overdoing it. I think what I wrote yesterday still looks more likely than the official forecast at this time. It still does not appear that Sandy will significantly influence the weather for the race on Sunday. The brunt of Sandy’s influence will affect the Mid-Atlantic area starting sometime on Monday and lasting into Wed. I’ll provide a final update another update tomorrow afternoon sometime when I have the latest and greatest models to look at plus guidance from the National Hurricane Center.

From Thursday

Hi folks! This is for all participating in one way or the other at FOTM 50K this Sunday Oct 28. Kevin Spradlin asked if I would provide a weather update considering the current situation with Hurricane Sandy. Note that one caveat is one gets what one pays for (i.e. Kevin’s not paying me anything here đŸ˜‰ ). I took a look at the latest weather forecas

t models plus the Hurricane Center thoughts along with the local NWS office. Overall, it appears that Sandy will not significantly impact the race day weather unlike the Nor’easter that dumped heavy snow the day before the 2011 race. However, the northeasterly flow around Sandy combined with an approaching front/upper level storm system will cause cool/chilly and damp conditions during much of the day with light rain and showers off and on as well. So trails will be wet, possibly muddy. Leaves that I read about may make things slippery, especially if they’re present on that one steep descent in the first section on the Red Trail. In addition, the winds will be fairly steady as well, but they’re not forecast to be hazardous at this time. So, guard against getting chilled during the day due to those conditions.

Specific forecasts:
Temps – 46 to start and only getting up to 51 during the day
Might see a bit of sun early but expect cloudy conditions for most of the day
Rain – showers and/or light rain off and on. Forecast amount 0.10 – 0.25 in.
Winds – N – NE 10-15 mph

Again, while Sandy isn’t forecast at this time to significantly impact the area on Sunday, the combination of the moist Atlantic air flow around Sandy combined with an approaching frontal and upper level storm system will still provide breezy/windy and cool/chilly/damp conditions during the race. Volunteers, race folks, and participants should plan accordingly.

I’ll provide more updates Friday and Sat.

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